14 years later. What the future holds for bitcoin
On October 31, 2008, a developer under the pseudonym Satoshi Nakamoto published the White Paper of the first cryptocurrency. Experts made an assumption about how the market of digital currencies will be 14 years after - in 2036
On October 31, 2008 an anonymous developer or group of programmers under the pseudonym of Satoshi Nakamoto published a whitepaper of Bitcoin "Bitcoin: A Peer-to-Peer Electronic Cash System".
After 14 years, the capitalization of the first cryptocurrency is $390 billion with daily trading volumes of $32.7 billion, and the value of one coin exceeds $20,000. Some states, such as El Salvador, have recognized bitcoin as a legal tender, and companies are investing billions and hundreds of millions of dollars in it.
Experts have predicted what bitcoin will be like in another 14 years, in 2036. How the cryptocurrency infrastructure will change, what its price will be and what to expect from the digital currency market.
Among infrastructural things we expect a deeper penetration of Lightning Network in bitcoin economy, in 10 years this superstructure may get a much more noticeable spread. There may also be other L2 solutions that can make bitcoin more flexible and suitable for everyday tasks. We believe it will be possible to freely buy a cup of coffee in Europe and North America in 2036 for bitcoin via instant LN payment.
The cost is hard to predict, too long a planning horizon, but let's assume that the price in 3-4 halvings from today's date could be quietly in the $400k to $1.2m range at its peak.
Conceptually, the market structure will not change much, the balance of forces will be about the same, but the share of BTC will be diluted in relative terms: first, by Ethereum, which strengthened by that moment, second, by a huge amount of new useless tokens, third, by CBDC coming to the market.
It is quite possible that if Kazakhstan's test with a digital tenge integrated directly into one of the blockchains popular among the DeFi ecosystem [want to launch in BSC] works, other countries may follow their example, and this opens direct access to smart contracts of decentralized finance to an unlimited number of new investors, without additional conversions and unnecessary actions.
"Dozens of nations recognize bitcoin as a means of payment."
ENCRY Foundation co-founder
By 2036, bitcoin will be recognized as legal tender in a dozen or maybe a couple dozen states. Most likely it will be the states with developing economies, that face high inflation of their national currencies and are very dependent on the external cash flows. I think it will be a few Latin American states that will follow El Salvador, but it is unlikely that large economies like Brazil will be among them.
Bitcoin will definitely expand its presence in the stock markets - it will appear in the listing of the world's major exchanges along with gold, and maybe there will be trading pairs to bitcoin - for example, shares of companies against cryptocurrency. I assume that this spread of bitcoin in stock trading will happen after a major exchange operator acquires a major crypto exchange.
Following the ubiquity of bitcoin on exchanges, the cryptocurrency will become a familiar asset among retail investors. Bitcoin price will be about $500 thousand by that time.
Regarding infrastructure, I still believe in the need to develop cross-chain solutions, cross-chain bridges that allow exchanging coins from one network to coins in another blockchain. Although the last year has shown that this is still a very vulnerable story, bridges get hacked - and often, but we should still look for a way to create secure crosschain bridges for a seamless exchange of liquidity between different blockchains.
"Crypto exchanges will become bigger than stock brokers."
By 2036, bitcoin will cross the $200k mark and possibly reach $1 million. Everyone will get used to a very different asset price and that will be fine.
Many assets and stocks will turn out to be digitized and will be traded through cryptocurrencies, there will be a so-called "wrapped asset". Based on this, the largest crypto exchanges will become larger than stock brokers and even banks.
Many goods will be possible to pay with cryptocurrencies in 1-2 clicks. The meaning between bank cards and cryptocurrencies will disappear - it will be a single and convenient mechanism. Cryptocurrency will become an everyday occurrence.
State-owned crypto exchanges with their own liquidity will appear in many countries. Many new assets will probably form around cryptocurrencies (like NFT). States will accumulate TOP cryptocurrencies and make "strategic" reserves, like gold reserves, without fear of sanctions and blockages. Hedge funds and investment companies will actively work with cryptocurrency - in fact, this is already starting to happen.
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