Growth Conditions Set: What Will Happen to Cryptocurrencies If Trump Wins?
The recent Standard Chartered report projects Bitcoin reaching $200,000 by the end of 2025. But what do cryptocurrency analysts expect if Donald Trump wins the U.S. presidency?
Following Trump's November 6 election victory, analysts predict his administration may reset and redefine cryptocurrency regulation. A key focus is likely to be on how the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) oversees the crypto market. Under current president Joe Biden, the SEC has tightened its control over cryptocurrencies.
How SEC Stance Could Shift Under Trump
In recent years, the SEC has launched numerous lawsuits against exchanges and brokers for failing to register as required under securities law. Market analysts, including those at U.S. brokerage firm Bernstein, expect that Trump’s administration would clarify the classification of crypto assets and accelerate the adoption of legislation on stablecoins and the broader crypto market framework. Bernstein also anticipates proposals to create a national Bitcoin reserve and increased focus on domestic mining.
Crypto Market Potential Under Trump’s Vision
Standard Chartered’s head of FX and digital assets research, Geoffrey Kendrick, aligns with this view, highlighting Trump’s pro-crypto pledges, including his intent to fire SEC Chair Gary Gensler and establish the U.S. as a global “crypto powerhouse.” Gensler has been outspoken in his skepticism toward the crypto market, which he claims is rife with fraud. Even after allowing Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S., Gensler maintained a critical stance.
During a speech at the Bitcoin 2024 conference in Nashville, Trump promised to replace Gensler if elected, which some analysts see as a potential boost for the crypto market.
Bitcoin Price Predictions
According to Standard Chartered, Bitcoin’s price may reach $125,000 by year’s end and $200,000 by late 2025, driven by Trump’s policy shifts and broader support for the crypto market.
Federal Reserve Policies and Macroeconomic Factors
Despite the political climate, macroeconomic factors like Federal Reserve (Fed) decisions are also expected to impact Bitcoin. BitRiver analyst Vladislav Antonov notes that the Fed’s upcoming rate announcement on November 7 could influence the market.
Lower Fed rates encourage riskier investments, including crypto. If rates are reduced, this could bolster Bitcoin, potentially bringing it to $80,000 in November and near $100,000 by December.
Long-Term Bullish Sentiment
According to Roman Nekrasov, co-founder of ENCRY Foundation, crypto is likely entering a new bullish cycle. Factors like Bitcoin’s halving, slowing inflation, and Trump’s pro-crypto administration signal favorable conditions for growth in digital assets.
