Over the past month, bitcoin's price range has become even narrower. The maximum value of the rate for the last 30 days reached the mark of $20.4 thousand (October 6). Coin rate fell to its minimum on the day of the publication of data on inflation in the U.S. for September, at that time token price fell to $18.3 thousand, but quickly recovered.
As of October 24, 17:30 Moscow time, the leading cryptocurrency is trading around $19,200, according to CoinGecko. Bitcoin has a market capitalization of $371 billion, with daily trading volume of $28.8 billion. The asset's share of the cryptocurrency market is 38.3%.
Elections and macroeconomics
U.S. congressional elections are due in November, said exmo.me development director. According to her, both cryptocurrency and traditional markets are generally strong in the run-up to these elections.
However, the expert noted that it is not quite right to expect the same behavior of rates as it was after the last election. The previous congressional elections were held in early November 2020. The cryptocurrency market was in a bullish phase, and since then, bitcoin has risen from $15,000 to $61,000 by April 2021.
But today, both the stock and cryptocurrency markets are still bearish, the expert said. She pointed out that volatility in the cryptocurrency market is quite low, and no serious rally is expected from bitcoin. If it fails to rise above $23 thousand, the downward pressure will continue, Stankiewicz believes.
Bearish pressure is amplified by global macroeconomic weakness combined with the popularity of short ETFs on bitcoin, the specialist explained. According to her, this raises concerns about whether this time November 2018, when bitcoin collapsed from $6,000 to $3,000 also after a long period of consolidation and low volatility, will be repeated.
Investors, primarily institutional investors, like in the stock market, always assess the situation in terms of the Federal Reserve's (Fed) reaction to macroeconomic data on the United States, says digital asset specialist Finmir Marketplace . In his opinion, the price of the asset may react to a further Fed rate hike.
Also among the important events for bitcoin and the entire crypto market in November, the expert called the TOKEN2049 conference. It will be held from November 9 to 10 in London. The specialist noted that such well-known figures in the cryptocurrency community as Galaxy Digital founder Mike Novogratz, Tezos co-founder Kathleen Breitman and Blockchain.com CEO Peter Smith will participate.
There is at least "slight hope" that the rate hike will end soon by 75 bps. (0.75%) at the end of each meeting, with a reduction to at least 0.25% or the suspension of increases - all this will lead to the development of a medium-term trend of growth in the rate of bitcoin.
He noted that then the psychologically important level of $20 thousand may be overcome, which will allow the bulls to rush to the levels of $24 thousand and $28.3 thousand in the coming month. More rapid growth looks too optimistic option for now, but may lead to the achievement of $32 thousand and $36.8 thousand, the expert said.
According to Stankevich, one should pay attention to the following levels of the bitcoin price in its growth: $20.5 thousand, then $22.8 thousand. Reaching the mark of $25 thousand by the first cryptocurrency will mean the change of the current trend, the expert believes.
The signal to the continuation of the bear market may be a level of $16 thousand, Stankevich said. Then, she said, one should pay attention to the level of $14 thousand and, finally, $10 thousand.
In the coming month, bitcoin may show a decline, Pan agreed with the previous expert. According to him, first the price of the first cryptocurrency may go down to the area of $18 thousand and later to the area of $15 thousand - $16 thousand. The expert noted that it will be possible if the Fed rate will continue to rise.