Bloomberg estimated the probability of launching a bitcoin-ETF in 2023 at 75%
Bloomberg analysts estimated the probability of launching a spot bitcoin-ETF in 2023 at 75%
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Agency may be dragging its feet on the decision, according to analysts James Seyffarth and Eric Balchunas
After Grayscale's victory in its case against the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), Bloomberg analysts James Seyffarth and Eric Balchunas estimated the probability of launching a spot bitcoin ETF in 2023 at 75%.
On Aug. 29, the court granted Grayscale's lawsuit challenging the regulator's refusal to approve its application to launch a bitcoin-ETF. The company filed a lawsuit against the main U.S. exchange regulator back in 2021.
"We are raising to a 75% chance of launching a spot bitcoin-ETF in 2023 (95% by the end of 2024). While we factored Grayscale's win into our previous 65% prediction, the unanimity and unambiguity of the decision exceeded expectations, leaving the SEC with little room to maneuver," Balchunas wrote.
The SEC will review Bitwise's bitcoin-ETF applications on Sept. 1, BlackRock, VanEck, Fidelity, Invesco, and Wisdomtree's applications on Sept. 2, and Valkyrie will receive the regulator's decision on Sept. 4, according to a deadline set by the commission. That said, the agency's analysts predict delays.
"We wouldn't be surprised if the SEC drags its feet on a decision, given the situation. But I'm not sure the timing will matter as much. Most likely, we will hear one day that the Commission has given up and the launch is imminent," Balchunas added.
In August, Bernstein analysts said Grayscale's victory over the SEC "clears the way" for a bitcoin-ETF. The first applications for bitcoin-ETFs could be approved next week, the whole process will last until early 2024, experts believe.
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