"Explosion after a lull." How Bitcoin rate will behave in the near future
Experts told what factors will affect the price of the leading cryptocurrency and gave forecasts for the dynamics of its rate
The bitcoin rate has fallen to its lowest since April 25. The price of the asset first reached a local maximum of $29,700 during those two weeks, but by May 10, it had fallen to $27,400. According to CoinGecko, at 13:00 BTC is trading at around $27,600.
Experts told RBC-Crypto, what dynamics can be expected from the price of bitcoin in the near future, whether the collapse of the rate is possible, and what will affect the value of the asset.
Inflation in the U.S.
In the near future the bitcoin rate will be very volatile, said the head of RBK Trading LTD. According to him, the price of BTC has been in a "sideways trend" for almost two months - during that time the 30-day volatility of the asset has fallen by 43.44%. After such a "lull," the price literally explodes to one side, the expert explained.
On May 10 the U.S. inflation data will be released and that will be the key economic factor in the near future, Chirpichinikov said. He specified that after that report it will become clear whether the buyers will be able to hold and push the price up or the sellers will be able to sell it down.
Financial analyst BitRiver also expects a surge of volatility in the market after the publication of the inflation report. He noted that the expectations of the report caused stock indices to fall, while the dollar index, on the contrary, went up.
The decline in inflation will give buyers the strength to return to the level of $30 thousand, while with the growth of consumer prices in the U.S., bitcoin will be under pressure, in which case, the risks of price departure under the level of $26.5 thousand will increase, the expert said.
In case of penetration of the important zone of $26.5-27 thousand, correction is possible, in which the price may go to test support at the level of $25 thousand.
Other factors affecting the Bitcoin rate
Information on inflation in the Eurozone, growing recession risks in the U.S., the Fed's rhetoric before the next meeting, as well as the interest rate decision may affect the bitcoin price in addition to data on consumer price movements in the U.S. Markets expect a pause in monetary policy tightening and easing in September.
"There were problems with bitcoin withdrawals from Binance this week, which also negatively affected the price of the asset. If the situation repeats on other exchanges, there is the possibility of seller pressure on the quotes."
He also recalled that historically, about eight months before halving (a halving of miners' reward expected in early 2024), the price of VTC goes out of the accumulation zone. For this reason, many market participants expect a full-fledged bullish trend to begin in late summer
The situation with the debt ceiling also affects the mood of investors, said Antonov. Republican senators refused to approve the debt ceiling increase without spending cuts reforms; the White House warned that exceeding the debt limit could lead to serious economic consequences.
Bitcoin Price Scenarios
Chirpichinikov says the negative scenario for Bitcoin is a breakthrough of the key zone located in the range of $26.5-27 thousand. With the fall below these marks, the rate may stop at only about $25 thousand - this is an important psychological level, as well as the next level of support, the expert said.
He named the rebound from $26.5-27 thousand to the area of $29-29.5 thousand as a positive scenario. If buyers manage to pass these levels, the price may go up to $33 thousand, soon the data on inflation in the U.S. will add clarity.
Buyers must fight for the level of $31 thousand: it must pass in order for the price pattern at the daily timeframe to become "bullish," otherwise the scales will tip in the sellers' favor.
The analyst also mentioned that according to the cyclic analysis, the scenario of sideways movement continuation is confirmed for the time being and the start of a new rally is expected on June 1.
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