"Fast for a weak trend." What will happen to bitcoin in the coming days
BitRiver and AMarkets analysts talked about the reasons for bitcoin price growth and market trends
Bitcoin rate updated the maximum in three weeks. Analysts told about the reasons for the rise in the price of the first cryptocurrency and trends in the market
On the morning of March 14 bitcoin (BTC), the rate rose above $24.8 thousand and updated the maximum for three weeks. For the first time since February 21 the value of the first cryptocurrency reached $24.82 thousand, it rose by 9.7% during the day. According to CoinGecko, as of 13:00, the asset is trading at $24,300.
Ethereum (ETH) also made a new high since February 21, exceeding the level of $1.7 thousand. It rose by 5.1% during the day, the price of the coin is hovering around $1.68.
Against the background of rising cryptocurrency rates, short positions of traders for $215 million were liquidated during the day. According to Coinglass, most of the forced closures occurred in pairs with bitcoin - $104.3 million, followed by Ethereum with losses of $53.2 million.
"Too fast for a weak trend."
BitRiver financial analyst
The rise in the price of bitcoin accelerated amid a weaker dollar and a change in expectations for U.S. Federal Reserve rates. The banking crisis forced the Federal Reserve (Fed) to hold an extraordinary meeting and take urgent action to stop the liquidity crisis and stagnant "the best banking system in the world," as Joe Biden calls it.
The banks could not withstand the tightening of monetary policy. The collapse of the three players influenced market participants' expectations for U.S. Federal Reserve rates at the next meeting on March 22. Participants now expect the Fed to take a pause in the cycle of rate hikes, so as not to exacerbate the situation.
This is positive for risky assets, including cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin rate updated a three-week high above $24.8 thousand on increased trading volumes.
Now some traders could start closing positions near the $25,000 resistance level that was held in February. This is not surprising, since in only four incomplete days the price soared 27%. This is too fast for a weak trend and the uncertain situation in the U.S. banking sector (especially with banks associated with crypto projects).
The ideal option at the moment is to consolidate under the level of $25k till March 22. In this case, buyers will have time to prepare for further growth and will be ready to go higher after the announcement of the US Federal Reserve's decision and Jerome Powell's speech.
Cryptocurrencies are rising not because of problems in the U.S. financial system, it's a completely different matter. Bitcoin went up on Monday after announcements in the States that Silicon Valley Bank deposits will be fully refunded to owners. Although no one is going to save the bank itself, which is associated with the crypto industry. It would seem that against such a background, cryptocurrencies should go down, but the dynamics were the opposite.
This happened because, after reports on the collapse of three banks in the U.S. in a week, traders became confident that the Fed would have to switch from raising the rate to lowering it. And this is a definite positive for the stock market - bitcoin correlates with the rate dynamics. The general sentiment on platforms in Europe and Asia (and even in the states themselves) was marked by the growth of indexes yesterday in the first half of the day - due to this cryptocurrencies also showed an increase in value.
But at the end of yesterday America did not show any dynamics, exchanges in Europe closed in the red zone, Asia also opened negative today, as well as the Moscow Exchange. Everybody is waiting for specific decisions from the Fed, which can cancel the panic in the banking sector, or the collapse will continue. There are quite a few lists, which indicate about 20 American banks under threat of bankruptcy. If news appears again that another financial institution collapsed in the U.S. or Europe, it could be negative for both the stock market and cryptocurrencies.
It is worth looking at the dynamics - so far it depends on events and news during the week. Already there was information about the closure of a European bank, there are concerns about banks in Japan.
Bitcoin is still frozen at $24.2 thousand. Depending on the news background movement is possible both up and down. It is worth waiting till the end of a week: by that time, it will be clear for sure, what is going on - the recurrence of 2008 or something worse. And maybe the problem will be temporarily stopped by efforts of the Fed, then it will be a strong positive, against which both stock exchanges and bitcoin will grow (up to the level of $26,000 is quite realistic).
Any statements of the US authorities with the words "crisis, problems" etc. will lead to the fall of stock indices all over the world, and bitcoin may fall to the level of $20-22 thousand.
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