Green season. Which cryptocurrencies will rise the most
Interviewed analysts predicted the movement of bitcoin price and spoke about the near-term prospects of the cryptocurrency market
Interviewed experts commented on the current state of the crypto market and assessed its prospects
The opinions of experts do not necessarily reflect the editorial position.
Bitcoin (BTC) has surpassed $28,000 and updated its highest since June 11, 2022. According to CoinGecko, the value of the first cryptocurrency reached $28,509 on the evening of March 19. As of 14:30 on March 20, the asset is trading at $28.3k.
The price of Ethereum (ETH) also renewed its local high on March 19, rising to $1.84k for the first time since August 17, 2022. The leading altcoin is at $1.78k, down 0.8% for the day. In the last 24 hours, some of the largest cryptocurrencies by capitalization also rose in value: BNB (BNB) gained 0.4% (to $337), Ripple (XRP) gained 0.7% (to $0.38) and Solana (SOL) gained 2.7% (to $22.38).
The total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies rose 0.5% to $1.206 trillion overnight, with about $134 billion of that amount coming from stablecoin, representing 11.14% of the total crypto market capitalization.
"The likelihood of a local 'alt-season' rises"
Exmo. me CEO
Unexpectedly for many, the crypto market has proved to be a lifeline from the effects of the banking crisis. The initial driver for the rise in prices was the bankruptcy of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), where USD Coin Stablecoin (USDC) issuer Circle held some of its collateral (worth $3.3bn). Some stablecoins came under pressure and temporarily lost their peg to the US dollar exchange rate, and the most innovative solution for traders was to shift capital into bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.
The collapse of banks in the US. How crypto traders took advantage of the situation
This situation created the driver to stop the correction. This was followed by positive US inflation data (down to 6% year-on-year, as analysts expected).
At the same time the banking sector, not only in the USA but also in the eurozone, found itself in an even more difficult position. This in turn prompted market participants to believe that the Fed and other central banks will slow down in raising interest rates. Some analysts even assume that interest rates will be lowered as soon as this year.
The decentralization and security of bitcoin and many other altcoins should also not be forgotten. This increases investor confidence in cryptocurrencies and motivates them to invest in this industry for the long term.
BTC's steady growth after $25k was largely the result of short positions liquidation. The $28-30 th. the zone is a local resistance, that's why a small price pullback is likely. The market will be more confident if we see three or four days in a row with upward price hikes and a price slowdown in the above-described zone.
The Fed will meet again on Wednesday (March 22) and that will add to the volatility in the market. There is a 75% chance that the regulator will raise rates by 0.25pc. Much more important will be the Fed's outlook on further monetary policy. If March is the last month of rate hikes this year, markets will react positively to such announcements.
Altcoins can only benefit from a slowdown in BTC. As seen in the charts, Polkadot (DOT), Cardano (ADA), Tezos (XTZ), Litecoin (LTC), and other coins did not show such growth. For this reason, altcoins may start to "catch up" with bitcoin in the short term. The likelihood of a local "altcoin season" is increasing.
Altcoin season, Altseason, is a cryptocurrency traders' slang term for a period of active one-off growth in alternative cryptocurrencies. Altseason is thought to take place in four phases: the rise of bitcoin, the rise of Ethereum, the rise of large-capitalized cryptocurrencies, and the massive growth of the rest of the crypto market, including low-liquid assets without fundamental value, accompanied by a massive rush by retail traders.
"Tens and even hundreds of percent."
Head of trading platform Cryptorg
Bitcoin aims to close the gap on the CME exchange of around $29,025 formed back in June 2022.
The gap in the CME exchange is the difference in price between the closing of CME futures on Friday night and their reopening on Sunday night. The CME exchange closes over the weekend. Because bitcoin is traded around the clock, there is most often a deviation between the closing price of CME and the price to which bitcoin was traded on the cryptocurrency exchanges by the time CME reopens on Sunday evening. This leaves a gap (price gap) and more often than not, prices return to pre-gap levels.
The massive panic in the US banking sector also provoked a short-term collapse in the crypto market, and that is when the big players started "buying back the fall". In addition, I believe that some money from the traditional financial sector has also moved into cryptocurrencies.
The short and medium-term forecast is as follows: bitcoin reaches the $30-32k zone, followed by a quiet (flat) period at that level. At that time, the "alt-season" should begin, in which other cryptocurrencies can give tens or even hundreds of percent profit.
"The medium-term trend persists."
Cryptocurrency market analyst
Currently, the main driver in the cryptocurrency market is the Fed meeting to be held this week. As a result of the meeting, market participants expect that monetary policy will be put under review due to difficulties in the US banking sector and a steady decline in inflation.
Markets are laying down the start of a rate-cutting cycle as early as this year, which, on the back of injections of money into the banking system, could improve liquidity and lead to higher prices for bitcoin and other market assets. The tightening monetary policy factor has been weighing on the cryptocurrency since late 2021, and a reversal in monetary policy could play into investors' hands, in light of rising BTC prices.
I believe there is still a possibility of a 0.25pc rate hike at this week's meeting. This could momentarily cause a spike in volatility in cryptocurrencies and lead to a local price correction, but overall, the medium-term upward trend in crypto-assets that started in January remains in place. The next growth targets for BTC are at $33K, while ETH could reach $2K by the end of March.