Investment idea: Earn on a real project, not on promises

Investment idea: Earn on a real project, not on promises
Professional trader Andrey Gorislavko told how to make money on TON cryptocurrency

According to Pavel Durov's statements, Telegram messenger today is no longer associated with the developments of TON Foundation, and there is no specific person behind TON (like Vitalik Buterin in Ethereum). But the fact that the repository on Github, the domain name ton.org and the trademark are in the hands of the Ton Foundation team makes The Open Network the only blockchain that Telegram relies on on its way to Web 3.0.

Pavel Durov said in closing down the Telegram Open Network project, after which TON was renamed The Open Network.

For my part, I humbly participated in both TON test networks, and received some coins via distribution via Telegram bot. I was very surprised, when I was able to send these Toncoins to FTX and sell them at $4 per coin at that time. So today there was a desire to get back on the Toncoin holdings list.

Right off the bat about the negativity surrounding Toncoin. 98.55% of the total Toncoin issue or 5 billion coins were distributed between June 2020 and July 2022 via mining. There are claims that 4.8 billion of the 5 billion Toncoin coins through initial distribution are concentrated in the hands of an unknown group of individuals with 250 addresses, which is 96% of the volume of all coins and plays against the idea of decentralization.

Today, the market capitalization of the project is $3 billion, while the total capitalization is $12 billion. All this time, 194 wallets of the existing 2,102,000 network addresses (or 0.009% of all addresses) were not counted when calculating the market capitalization of TON, because they are inactive. These mining wallets mined coins directly from smart contracts running on the Proof-of-Work (PoW) algorithm, but have never been activated and have no outgoing transactions. On February 22, 2023, the TON community and over 75% of validators voted to temporarily restrict the activation of 171 dormant wallets with a total balance of 1,081,389,417 Toncoins (over 20% of the total).

Now let's put down the negatives and look at the prospects of investing in Toncoin. The main advantages of TON are its dynamic sharding technology and initially well-designed architecture as a "blockchain for blockchains" and its multipurpose components (TON DNS, TON Proxy, TON Storage, TON Sites, TON APPS, etc.) linking the Internet and decentralized networks. Blockchains will be able to exchange smart contracts with each other and access sites and files on the network. This is a key TON technology that developers believe will be able to make changes comparable to the emergence of the Internet. Sharding supports up to 260 networks with near-instant interaction between chains. In comparison, Ethereum 2.0 is claimed to have up to 26 networks, moreover, with slow interaction between blockchains.

Toncoin is used to pay for all the services provided by the TON blockchain: domain name purchases, storage fees, app purchases, hosting fees, and more. Telegram recently launched Fragment, an auction platform for purchasing domain names and virtual phone numbers in the messenger with payment in Toncoin. The launch of Fragment brings Telegram one step closer to Web 3.0. Thanks to the virtual number, you can be the full owner of your account, this is authenticated in the blockchain and limits access only to the owner of the seed phrase from the wallet where the NFT with the virtual number is stored. These NFTs can be forwarded and sold at auction. You can go to any country and not worry about the old phone number or, for example, drown your smartphone in the sea, restoring access to your account, having the seed phrase from the wallet with the number in the form of NFT. In addition such a number is anonymous.

The project has a strong advertising campaign. At the right time of the cryptocurrency market, TON advertising was launched both in Telegram and on Yandex, VKontakte, YouTube and other platforms. These ads introduced the news of the project and highlighted the launch of new services, rather than promising high returns from buying TON. If we do not consider the initiative of traders and investment information resources, there was no active advertising with an appeal to buy Toncoin and the promise of subsequent growth from the project. There are quite a few channels on Telegram that cover all the news around the TON ecosystem, and with an incredibly high number of subscribers, relative to competitors. The 2018 SEC scandal (the regulator banned the project's ICO - Soft4bro.com) can already be credited as a plus for today, as it has drawn attention to TON across

Durov is not formally connected to TON, but even if he is, he has already completely cleared himself before the SEC by paying a fine.

TON is a large emerging ecosystem that includes all the major blockchain tools. The integration with Telegam personally puts TON above Ethereum for me. Sad to say, but Ethereum and Binance Chain are out of projects that aim for the right future of finance and the Internet for peoplĕ they are already more focused on bankers, but a separate topic.

Most well-known cryptocurrency wallets have announced their support for Toncoin. A "wrapped" version of Toncoin is available for storage on wallets such as MetaMask, Binance Chain Wallet, etc.

The TON Foundation's roadmap for 2023 includes the following items:

Crosschain transfers between Ethereum, Binance Chain, Polygon and TON;
A single protocol for interaction between TON applications and wallets;
Increased network security and stability;
Token burning mechanism (deflation);
Turning wallets into decentralized messengers with encrypted messages;
Guidelines and code examples for organizing TON operation under high load in exchange exchanges, payment systems and other services.

All of the above has already been described by analysts many times, now I will try to convey my view of the future of Telegram and TON.

In February I got acquainted with Fragment platform and bought some anonymous virtual numbers. Then there was a desire to choose a "nice" number, both by the combination of numbers and from the principles of so-called numerology, which some potential buyers may attach importance to. The very combination of numbers in the prefix +888 is believed to be associated with good luck and wealth, and this can also add value to the number as an asset for those who believe in such things. All of this combined with a limited number count seems to me to be a very successful marketing move. By itself, a virtual number in the form of an NFT gives some confidence in the ownership of the asset.

With the integration of TON into Telegram comes the prospect of monetization. If users used to create channels en masse, now it will be possible to build a market for NFT avatars and logos in the messenger, and then allow to set the image as the logo of the created channel only in the form of NFT. A small fee must be paid to create an NFT, and this move will immediately give a spike in both the use of the TON network and the purchase of Toncoin. Marketplace logos and avatars will give artists and designers the opportunity for additional income, to name just one example. After the emergence of Telegram ADS targeting ads and paid subscriptions to Telegram, Durov finally has a steady income to implement his plans. After the failed ICO, Pavel had debts, but they will eventually close.

From theory and fundamental analysis, let's move on to the price chart and technical analysis.

I try not to consider coins that circulate less than 80% of their full issue. In this case, only 24% of Toncoin is in circulation, and just over 20% has been blocked by the community for 4 years. Based on all the perspectives described, I close my eyes to that. Looking only at these numbers and considering ETH's capitalization of $204 billion and BNB's $49 billion, one could easily allow for a rise to the $10 mark, with Toncoin trading at $2.4 at the time of publication.

In the cryptocurrency market, I expect there is a very good chance of seeing some sort of panic in the short term. All the recent growth in altcoins could prove to be a trap. In the week, the SEC gave movement to a case where the NFT of the "NBA Top Shot" project by Dapper Labs (developers of the FLOW blockchain) could get unregistered securities status, which would set an unexpected precedent. In all likelihood, the FLOW token will be recognized as a security, and Dapper Labs will be fined. Just against this background, it is TON that stands out among many by the fact that the project is clean before the regulator.

Looking at the chart, I would like to buy Toncoin at a lower level, because indicators show overbought and I expect the market to decrease.

At $1.7 I allocate 50% to buy, at $1.42 and $1 I allocate 25% each. There is a probability to see the price a little bit lower on the panic, but do not worry, fundamentally TON is a very strong project and it will be bought back in a moment. If all the "take profit" (take profit) work, the average entry price will be equal to $1.45. The wave analysis of the whole history chart also showed the target of $10, after which I expect a strong corrective movement. Approximately such growth may start closer to the summer with the peak close to the winter of this year.

Investment idea: Earn on a real project, not on promises

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