"Risk appetite has returned." What will happen to bitcoin in the coming week
An analyst gave a bitcoin price forecast for the week from April 3 to April 9
The expert analyzed the market situation and told how it may change in the short term
On Sunday, April 2, bitcoin is trading at $28.4 thousand, its price rose by 2.5% over the past week. The specialist analyzed the situation in the market and assessed the prospects for the movement of the bitcoin rate in the next seven days.
"We are waiting for a test of the level of $30 thousand."
BitRiver financial analyst
The final week of March on the crypto market began with a decrease in the pair BTC/USDt. The bitcoin exchange rate fell by 5.81%, to $28,484. The fall was caused by negative news in the crypto industry. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) filed a lawsuit against the head of Binance, Changpeng Zhao, and the heads of three other organizations that run the Binance platform. The regulator claims that the exchange did not register as a platform trading cryptocurrency derivatives and was not authorized to provide services to U.S. customers, but actively worked with U.S. investors, ignoring legal regulations.
U.S. vs. Binance. Who will benefit from the problems of the largest cryptocurrency exchange
In the $26.5-26.6k zone, buyers regrouped and fought back amid positive news from the banking sector and rising U.S. indices. The U.S. Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) announced that deposits and loans from bankrupt Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) are going to U.S. First-Citizens Bank.
On March 29, bitcoin recouped earlier losses, returning to the $29,184 level. Risk appetite returned for market participants as concerns about the banking sector eased following congressional hearings on the SVB bankruptcy.
The upward movement did not continue. The buyers, having met the volumes of the sellers, started to fix the profit from the long positions. This was a purely technical factor, for on that day the external background was on the buyers' side - the dollar index was declining, while the S&P 500 futures were rising.
In the evening the buyers' activity might have been low because of the speeches of the U.S. Federal Reserve representatives, who supported the further tightening of the monetary policy, despite the collapse of the three American banks.
On Friday (March 31), the price corrected to $27,511 and then went back to $28,656. Buyers have so far ignored the U.S. crackdown on Binance, Coinbase, and TRON founder Justin Sun amid a rally in stock indexes and U.S. dollar weakness.
The S&P 500 index rose 3.23% to 4,109 p. for the week and 6.88% for the quarter. Bitcoin gained 72.08% against the dollar to $28465 at the end of the first quarter of 2023.
During the week of April 3-9, the market will be focusing on American statistics (manufacturing and service sector activity, industrial production data, and the March labor market report). In Europe, it is a shortened week. Europeans will celebrate Good Friday on Friday (April 7) and Easter on Monday (April 10). Liquidity will affect the dollar, and through the currency market, the crypto market.
BitRiver estimates that the quarterly timeframe indicates a recovery to $34k, while the monthly timeframe indicates a recovery to $43k by August (with a very favorable external backdrop). If the market gets rocked by regulatory action or new bankruptcies, then by mid-September. Here we have to see what kind of wave structure of upward movement will form when the level of $34k is reached. If bitcoin does not shrink much over the weekend, we expect a test of the $30k level this week.