"The Exit Point. Why crypto traders began to fix profits
Specialists told about the reasons for mass closures of profitable transactions and gave forecasts for the dynamics of the bitcoin rate in the near future
Experts of analytical company Santiment noted that traders behave as if they assume that the crypto market has reached a price peak, and fix profits "while there is an opportunity." According to analysts, the Profit Ratio (Profit Ratio indicator) shows the highest value for bitcoin since February 2021, for Ethereum - since October 2021.
Mass fixation of profits occurs on the background of growth of cryptocurrency rates. Bitcoin from the beginning of January rose in price by 26.5% - from $ 16.6 thousand to $ 21 thousand. January 16 bitcoin rate updated its maximum of 4 months, exceeding the mark of $ 21.4 thousand. Ethereum increased this year by 32% - from $1.2 thousand to $1.59 thousand.
Fast profit and rescue from losses
The rapid price growth in a short period of time without corrections is really a reason to fix profits, because such movements quite often end with rollbacks for part or all of the value of growth, said cryptoanalyst Viktor Pershikov. According to him, investors who bought cryptocurrency in the process of a sharp rise in price prefer to fix their purchases so as not to lose a quick income.
In addition, at current prices, those who entered even earlier - when bitcoin prices were falling in 2022 - also come out of purchases, Pershikov added. He explained that the current growth allows to minimize the drawdown and exit from purchases near entry levels and thus save from losses.
The current price growth in the market really looks like a convenient exit point for mid-term investors, said Nikita Zuborev, senior analyst at Bestchange.ru. We also register a surge of activity in the direction of selling cryptocurrencies, both according to internal statistics and the number of requests to support the service.
The main variants of events development in the market are two, said the analyst. It is continuation of growth to the level of $30 thousand with fixation in the range of $25-30 thousand for several months, or the return to the global moderate downtrend. Though, even in case of the second variant, it is quite possible that the price will stop at the level of $20 ths for a few more weeks, the expert reckons.
If we talk about the beginning of a confident long-term uptrend, the change is not expected until the second half of the year, said Zuborev. He explained that if the stock markets begin to recover in the first half of the year, this reversal will be possible in the fall of 2023 on the crypto market.
Possible scenarios
There are no factors that would indicate that the upward movement in bitcoin is over, Pershikov said. He pointed out that the price of the asset continues to fluctuate near the upper boundary of the old range.
The expert noted that in case of new fundamental triggers that support prices for crypto assets, the cost of the first cryptocurrency may form another wave of growth with targets at $23k and $25k.
At the same time, if the BTC price stays at current levels for some time (1-2 weeks) without continuing growth, it will really be necessary to leave purchases, says the analyst. He explained that such dynamics will point to the inability of bitcoin price to develop further growth at this moment.
The market may indeed be in a local growth phase for a short time, Zuborev noted, commenting on the reasoning of Santiment analysts. However, not all possible scenarios imply that bitcoin price will fall in the near future, he believes, agreeing with the previous expert.
The main variants of development
